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jonotime
Why isn't the industry freaking out about DeepSeek 4.1 Flash? dgt.is

p1neconea minute ago

I have a pretty large, complex project I've been building with heavy AI use (new language + compiler). I was following a 'strong model as orchestrator launching cheap models as implementers' pattern, but I recently trialled just using Deepseek-V4.1-Flash as the model for both layers because of the cost savings (with mimo v2.6 flash on code review agents for some decorrelation).

I was previously using GLM-5.3 as the orchestrator, after switching to DS anecdotally there was an unnacceptable quality loss, mostly around not taking all the relevant context into account when making decisions, pulling new design out of thin air without discussion too often, and being way too wordy and rambly in documentation despite prompting to avoid it. There's a lot of docs, rulings, core concepts, design leans to uphold and DS was just not cutting it.

However, it's perfectly capable of being the sole agent for all of my well specced implementation tasks. I've gone back to GLM as the orchestrator.

giancarlostoroan hour ago

Call me crazy but:

VRAM & Memory Requirements by Precision

• FP16 (Full Precision): Requires ~1,664 GB of VRAM (e.g., an 8x B300 288GB cluster).

• INT8 Quantization: Requires ~832 GB of VRAM (e.g., 8x H200 141GB).

• INT4 Quantization: Requires ~416 GB of VRAM (e.g., 8x A100 80GB)

VRAM aint cheap, Sam Altman ruined the cost of memory, Nvidia doesnt make enough consumer GPUs letting the market go insane over them, I still have friends on 1070s or 1070 TIs because GPUs have been severely overpriced for too long. I remember when a gaming PC was only $1000.

Even so why would anyone not sleep on a model they cannot run?

kristopolousan hour ago

Seriously, if a single politician stepped forward and said "i'll bring down ram prices" they could then shoot a puppy and call me a slur and I'd still go out and doorknock for them.

Memory companies have price fixed multiple times. They've paid hundreds of millions in fines. wikipedia even has a page on it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing.

Look at the financials of these companies, they're all making obscene margins and do they plan to increase production? No. Micron is doing a stock buy back to pump the price of their share.

The Micron CEO just recently said this is the exact plan https://www.theregister.com/systems/2026/10/01/ram-supply-se...

There's sanctions, tarrifs, and a DOJ who doesn't give a shit. Until we can fix that the insanity will continue. Phones will be unaffordable. Laptops will be obscene. Gaming consoles will be thousands of dollars. Desktops will be dead.

If you're waiting for some David Ricardo equation to happen, tough cookies, it's not coming.

The market is legally locked down and we're in hostage pricing mode.

And what's the story? You can't afford electronics because we're using it to build robots to take your job? I mean ...

Nobody is coming to save us. That's our job.

phil2122 minutes ago

> do they plan to increase production? No.

Micron has 3 brand new fabs currently under construction, 2 Boise, 1 in New York as the first of 4 planned for a campus.

Plus expanding other existing facilities.

These things take ~3-5 years from breaking ground to full production. You'd have had to anticipate the current demand years before it happened in order to be bringing production on-line before 2030 or so.

Samsung and HK Hynix also have fabs under construction and planned.

CXMT started 11 years ago and only now is reaching any real volume. If they decided a year ago to react to the current demand cycle they'd be 6-7 years out.

Not much you can really do to wish for more fabrication to exist on any timeline not measured in fractional decades.

Could they do more and react quicker? Probably, but everything I've read on the subject seems to point to 3 years is absolute bare minimum if you happen to have a shovel ready project with the land bought, local permitting completed, infrastructure extended to the site, and a skilled workforce already in place. They could suspend buy-backs/dividends today and dump it all into building production and there would be no material impact until around 2030.

> The Micron CEO just recently said this is the exact plan

CEO simply stated the demand pressure will not go away through 2027, and supply will not increase until around 2028 when currently under construction fabs start shipping volume. The article does not support your statement.

ashdksnndck15 minutes ago

RAM manufacturers are bidding against NVIDIA and everyone else for the same constrained supply of EUV machines. And it takes years to build more fabs. Micron has multiple fabs coming online in 2027 and 2028.

m46326 minutes ago

> "i'll bring down ram prices"

wonder what voting would be like?

gamer vote ++

datacenter hater vote --

datacenter lobby ++

micron lobby --

mwambua21 minutes ago

Wouldn’t cheaper memory make it easier to bring compute out of data centers and onto consumer hardware?

TeMPOraL2 minutes ago

Datacenter haters will read this as "that's still evil AI", and everyone else hopefully can count and understands it'll be worse for environment.

xyzsparetimexyz20 minutes ago

Neither political party cares at all about memory pieces get real lol

kristopolous12 minutes ago

wait until holiday shopping...it affects the price of almost everything with a battery or power cord.

mh-a minute ago

Is there a prediction market I can wager on about Black Friday volume YoY?

(Disclosure: I work in MarTech and have access to non-public data; I wouldn't actually do this.)

gchamonlive39 minutes ago

You won't see it because this politician wouldn't survive one rally before getting shot, and even so it would be hard to bring prices down. There would have to be major investigation into ram vendors forming cartel in order to break them, and major investments to increase production, because this is also a supply shortage fulled inflation

LoganDark3 minutes ago

Politicians seem hard to shoot these days...

Analemma_24 minutes ago

I don't think RAM vendors have formed a cartel and I think this is knee-jerk anger without any thought. RAM is a commodity product with massive upfront capex costs, and those always have boom-and-bust cycles. At various points in the 2010s and 2020s RAM vendors were getting eaten alive by a supply glut, this would not have happened if they were a cartel.

Is it really so hard to believe that RAM prices are up because demand is simply exceeding supply, especially in a market where additional supply takes years and billions of dollars to come online? There's no need to posit cartel behavior and a fair amount of evidence that there is none.

[deleted]10 minutes agocollapsed

petu28 minutes ago

There's no BF16, original full quality weights are quantized already and 510GB.

Then good portion of those weights are n-grams (~200GB) that don't need to be in VRAM.

Then KV cache of that model is super lightweight at ~1GB per 1M tokens. If HBF succeeds, then accelerator with 16GB of VRAM and 1TB HBF/NAND is probably all you need (?).

girvo8 minutes ago

Not quite: not all of this needs to be in VRAM

It has a set of n-gram tables which you can stream from system RAM or even NVMe

That said it’s still quite big! I can’t fit it on my DGX Spark, though I believe you can if you have two?

cookiengineer2 minutes ago

It's dangerous to go alone. Take this: [1]

I reimplemented most of the features of the Deepseek v4.1 flash paper (apart frok quantization aware training which doesn't make sense because my implementation uses float32 precision anyways)

I'm currently learning how to distill reasoning traces (check my other github repositories) but I think that a locally selfhostable deepseek is possible with my mixture of experts sharding mechanism. I decided to optimize everything for CPU parallelization, with the idea that the KV cache and meta model have to run from CPU RAM anyways, so the experts can also be loaded/unloaded at runtime if needbe, to save more RAM.

Anyways, would love to see someone train this on their own datasets. Currently my pipeline is kinda optimized for parquet and zim files.

[1] https://github.com/cookiengineer/gonano

anvuong21 minutes ago

I just un-retire my pair of 1080Ti for some small models development because the current GPU prices literally make me sad.

ByteAtATime41 minutes ago

I think, considering the size of this model, it's closer to a Pro than a Flash on everything other than speed

nullc18 minutes ago

The bulk of its weights are natively MXFP4. And engram values don't need to be in vram.

functionmouse30 minutes ago

one can make a fine gaming pc for ~$350

1660 ti, 4790k, 16gb ddr3

liuliu24 minutes ago

What are you talking about? The model is native NVFP4, why you run it at any precision higher than that?

holoduke41 minutes ago

He doesn't ruin the cost of memory. Advances in memory size and speed are now in full speed mode. Expect drastic increase in the upcoming years. Big factories are in the making and planned. Gigalab in the US and many others in the east. Since 2010 we have computers with 16gb as being normal. Finally we are moving into a new era where the standard will be 64gb next year and 128 in 2028. Hopefully we reach 1tb in 2030.

CorrectHorseBat32 minutes ago

I've read the exact opposite, vendors are reducing the standard from 16GB back to 8GB

lmf4lol34 minutes ago

Oh man. v4.1-flash has been an sbolute game changer for us. We run all our Personal Assistants now on flash (thinking high) by default and it works incredibly well. There is really no need for basic agentic tasks that might require Kimi K.3 or GLM-5.3 levels.

Once its gets juicier, we let flash launch specialized subagents with specific models. GLM-5.3 for coding or Kimi K.3 for research and critique.

But as a main driver. I love flash. And it brought our bill down by A LOT :D

aftbit21 minutes ago

Have you compared it against actual SOTA models like latest Fable or Astra?

sneurlax14 minutes ago

Of course there's still a huge performance gap

but DS 4.1 Flash is good enough for most tasks

alex-moon12 minutes ago

I think because we're all just using it thinking we have found the "model for me" and never mentioning it to anyone because what would we say? It's good. It's a bit like the Logitech MX Master, as more and more people assumed they had found the ideal mouse for their purposes, it quietly became the professional standard through sheer adoption.

mlinsey14 minutes ago

I'm paying for the heavily-discounted subscriptions, not the API rates. There isn't really a cost gap for me. DeepSeek doesn't have a subscription to compare to, but when I compared the GLM 5.3 usage I got from a $100/mo Z.ai subscription compared to Opus 5.5 on a $100/mo Claude subscription, there wasn't a big gap. And GLM 5.3 is very clearly not a frontier model (deepseek v4 seemed a lot closer, but I didn't use it enough to really say for my workloads).

I don't think those subscriptions nave negative contribution margins, either. I think we're seeing a lot of price discrimination by the big labs, and huge margins on their frontier models. The fact that they have been cutting prices to their second-biggest tier of models (Opus/Sol).

Open models catching up and collapsing these margins would worry me if I were a shareholder in the big labs, but as a user, I really doubt that the western labs have bigger environmental impact just because they have higher API costs, I think they have a ton of efficiencies they aren't sharing with customers yet because demand is so high.

hmontazerian hour ago

I had the same experience using ds 4.1 last couple of weeks. It’s insanely good for the price. I’m doing mostly web dev it excels at everything I throw at it. The pricing is ridiculous. I canceled my gpt subscription and haven’t looked back hope the pricing stays like that. I almost never need a better model. I still keep my Claude 20$ sub for now but I feel like one more iteration and I won’t need even that anymore I hardly use it

jacquesm41 minutes ago

If DS4.1 impresses you I would be really interested to see your comparison to GLM 5.3. I switched from the one to the other and even if GLM 5.3 is a bit slower I don't think I'll be going back.

ctolsen33 minutes ago

GLM 5.3 is very impressive and definitely better, but it also at least 4x the price.

On that note I’ve been subbing in MiMo-2.6-pro when cost is an issue, which is super cheap and also performing really well.

pdhborges17 minutes ago

What inference provider are you using?

RGS181116 minutes ago

This model finally got me off my Claude Max subscription. I’ve found it superior to Opus 5.5 in certain use cases, and certainly faster.

I’m convinced that I’ll have good enough inference on my laptop at reasonable speeds within the next year.

aguilaair28 minutes ago

What about MiMo v2.6 Pro? It’s throughput is slower by default (UltraSpeed is faster than DS4.1F) but is above the pareto line, and cheaper.

see https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/releases/comparisons?co...

patresha minute ago

Technically yes, but has been reported to be quite benchmaxxed. In practice Deepseek Flash 4.1 and GLM 5.3 might therefore still outperform Mimo 2.6 pro.

swiftcoder43 minutes ago

I think the interesting provider to cross-check this assumption with here is Meta, who is clearly freaking out, and is currently providing Muse 1.3 even cheaper so long as you are willing to share data with them

wg0an hour ago

While using DeepSeek v4.1 Flash I was architecting a system and I made a mistake of drawing the RPC boundaries at a wrong place that did cost me in so many ways.

I realized that mistake and guided DeepSeek where it should be.

Next I fired Fabble 5.5 set to high to check if the hype is real about Fabble. It exhausted 89% of quota and came up with NOTHING that DeepSeek hadn't flagged itself already in its notes.

sampullman27 minutes ago

Do you mean Fable 5.1? Or Opus 5.5? I'm not sure what you're working on but for me DS 4.1 flash isn't nearly at their level. For the price it's obvious very impressive, though Luna 6.0 is excellent too.

hirako200019 minutes ago

The problem with benchmarks and proprietary models is that one day a model is best at doing X, another day that's not so sure. And anyway, we are throwing the same X.

I've found supposedly smaller and, less performant models do better on certain tasks. I end up using several models, sticking to what my unconscious statistical observations tell me to use for the kind of task at end.

wg09 minutes ago

Fabble 5.1.

simpaticoderan hour ago

The question seems rhetorical but I think there are two reasons in some combination. First is it there is some awareness lag here. That lag can be on the producer and consumer side. Software enterprises are pretty slow to adopt new things and slow to try new things so they might only be aware of openai and Claude as options. Plus there are some scariness because deep seek is a Chinese model and therefore export restricted - never mind that there are American in European providers.

The other reason is more interesting. Maybe the frontier providers think that price performance is irrelevant in light of very powerful frontier models that can start the RSI loop and or a huge displacement of work and a winner take all economic situation. After all if frontier providers earn everyone's money then you won't have any money to spend on any model 100x cheaper or not.

agoodusername6332 minutes ago

I think it also has a bit to do with the AI sector of tech still moving at lightning speed.

Theres already models that outdo DS 4.1 flash in cost/performance. Luna 6 on max effort for example. Luna also doesn't care what time of the day it is for cost calculation.

And I'm sure by the time people ask why Luna 6 is being slept on there will be another cost/performance king

pizza2344 minutes ago

People have been raving since forever about Deepseek, but if one looks at the CoT, it's evident that it's way way stupider than frontier models (there's a reason why it's cheap). It's laughable to compare Deepseek 4.1 with Opus 5.5.

I've benchmarked, rigorously, deepseek-v4-flash for programming and personal use, and it is definitely less smart than Qwen3.8-flash-next (which in turn, is not terribly smart).

Local models are also really slow, unless one spends insane amounts of money.

Having said that, Qwen3.8-flash-next is an impressive evolution; it reaches the small versions of the frontier models (like Sonnet) - but again, it's massively slower and not 100% reliable (including: stability).

elmer219 minutes ago

DeepSeek isn't even on my mind. I use the frontier models and can get the best in the industry for a relatively cheap price.

xyzsparetimexyz15 minutes ago

There was a moment 3 months back where the sentiment was that cheaper models were the way to go. Since then the pendulum has swung back.

liuliu23 minutes ago

DeepSeek 4.1 Flash 0910 is perfect for M5 Ultra 256GiB. Running it fully resident in RAM, prefill at ~2500 tok/s and decode at ~40 tok/s. Probably tons of room to improve from there.

sdg03ksdv0d13 minutes ago

You are running this now? :o

kristianp28 minutes ago

> shrank the KV cache by roughly 437X

Can't you just say "shrank to 1/437th the size"? It's not that hard.

pessimizer5 minutes ago

I'm no expert, but it think that it's the pricing on GPT-6 Luna. I'm also guessing that it's been underpriced just for this reason. I also don't think it's all that great, but it's definitely very cheap.

If it's underpriced, it's a loss leader to sell the other models, so it actually can't be too good.

I really put these things through their paces because I use them to review and work with new abstract game rules and models, so they're always flying blind. Luna misses the obvious (and more importantly, the clearly explained) consistently. My second prompt is listing all of the points in its first response, and saying "No, it doesn't work like that." The third prompt is picking out the two or three suggestions it made after correcting itself on all of the original points and saying "That's how it already works." The fourth prompt is "Now that we're done going over the rules, can we start?"

I actually feel like 5.6 Luna seemed better.

pianopatrick36 minutes ago

I was just using a bunch of models in Cursor to review a project. I went looking for DeepSeek and it was not one of the options.

Would be cool if they added it.

hirako200017 minutes ago

Since they adhere to the same API spec, you can hook any model. It takes one line edit in /etc/hosts

There are some quirks if your harness use unsupported features of course.

gsky30 minutes ago

America bans Chinese models sooner or later just the China banned American big tech

browningstreetan hour ago

What would freaking out look like, or is this just a stupid bloggish title flourish?

Is OpenAI coming in $20B under a sign of "freaking out"?

jerf35 minutes ago

It would look like major chaos in the markets.

People tend to conflate the question "is AI a useful technology?" with "are the AI companies going to do well?" but they're surprisingly separated in practice, with either one able to be true while the other is false. There is a lot of money tied up in a lot of hardware with a lot of loans made against that hardware as collateral all based on the assumption that AIs are going to need more and more and more and more hardware and whoever has the hardware wins. If a much better model comes out that requires vastly less hardware, or even more accurately, merely charges vastly less than the current AI companies, then to a first approximation (barring Jevon's paradox, and bearing in mind there's no timeline guarantee on that) all that hardware becomes much less valuable for being grotesquely oversupplied relative to what is necessary, and even though that would generally make AI objectively more useful than it was before, it would cause mass financial chaos in the markets.

The markets need a very particular rate of progress. It isn't entirely clear to me that it's even a possible rate of progress, it may be overconstrained, but they certainly don't have plans for the AI models to get commoditized on the timeframes of these vast, vast array of loans being made against hardware as collateral. Spend a metric shit ton of money to kill all your competition then charge monopoly rent on the one thing absolutely everyone needs doesn't work if you can't economically "kill all your competition" because the economics favor them in the spending spree.

And then, based on the fact that this is not even remotely complicated logic, there are plenty of people who are fully aware that they have a lot of money tied up in not running around telling everyone how wonderful the cheap models have become.

hirako200014 minutes ago

It's also unclear whether those who approved those loans understand GPUs depreciation. In any case, progress in software but also hardware could bring chaos and ruin their house of cards.

pessimizer3 minutes ago

> It's also unclear whether those who approved those loans understand GPUs depreciation.

This also assumes heavy utilization, though. If there's heavy utilization, it might mean they're doing well. If they're all spinning, it's time to raise prices.

efficaxan hour ago

they should be freaking out because every time the chinese labs or non "frontier" labs release a model that is only a few months behind and much cheaper than the openai/anthropic models it shows that they don't deserve their valuations

smallmancontrovan hour ago

They might be. They would delay public admission as long as possible, because public admission would make stocks go down.

[deleted]25 minutes agocollapsed

tengbretsonan hour ago

I don't know about "freaking out", but I'd say I'm having a good time here with DS 4.1 flash.

hypfer40 minutes ago

Is it known why unsloth seems to not have touched DeepSeek 4.1 Flash?

jacquesm36 minutes ago

You can ask them directly, Daniel Han-Chen is pretty responsive.

booian hour ago

Because GLM 5.3 Flash is even cheaper?

f311a16 minutes ago

Opencode Go gives only 6300 requests for glm and 23 000 for deepseek. And, if I wanted to, I would be able to do all my work on $10 plan with deepseek. It’s very cheap.

ActionHank41 minutes ago

Nah fam, not true, also DS edges it out on coding / dev tasks.

jacquesm40 minutes ago

That is opposite to my experience so far, can you describe your coding tasks? Mine are systems level code, utilities, operating system code, networking and real time control stuff.

UncleOxidant8 minutes ago

I also prefer GLM-5.3-flash to DS-4.1-flash, but it's close. Since Z.ai has been offering essentially free GLM-5.3-flash tokens on their coding plan between 8am-6pm pdt I've been using it a lot... though that ends on Oct 10 IIRC.

sampullman26 minutes ago

On design tasks too, for me.

wg0an hour ago

Don't think so.

MisterMunchkin25 minutes ago

I had it make 25 different things today and it cost $0.70

It’s disgustingly good value. I find it capable of doing anything I want.

Obviously can’t use it at work, but for home projects it’s awesome.

Octoth0rpe6 minutes ago

> Obviously can’t use it at work

I do wonder how long it'll be before a us-hosted offering is available via bedrock, copilot, etc.

sergiotapia15 minutes ago

In my experience it just takes so much longer to arrive at "done" state for me. It thinks for soooooo long. I guess if you're running 12 sessions at once you don't really notice.

anguralbanish2an hour ago

I would love to get them more better, it's good not a bad thing.

AIblemblioan hour ago

No they can't.

And as long as I pay as little for claude opus 5.5 i do right now, i'm using it.

But yes i'm glad that we have alternatives.

doctorpangloss24 minutes ago

because it doesn't work very well?

if you have a legitimate coding application, it isn't very good. if you have some kind of inauthentic activity, which could be what it is trained for for all sorts of reasons...

distantsounds21 minutes ago

because we've all figured out that AI is just a huge grift?

verdverm19 hours ago

Why would we freak out? The systems we use have always gotten better, faster, cheaper with time

kydanet5 minutes ago

[flagged]

sroussey32 minutes ago

Not comparing to gpt-6-luna which seems comparable and priced well.

wewewedxfgdf19 minutes ago

You might also choose to pay money for a service that provides real value instead of actively choosing to support the Chinese deliberate effort to undermine this country.

BarryMilo11 minutes ago

Your comment seems to imply there's a good guy in a this. I just see the inevitable end of an era, championed by predictably selfish actors.

thefourthchimean hour ago

For non-coding tasks it may be fine. But for coding, Opus 5.5 is just a completely another level than something like Deepseek 4.1 Flash.

Opus 5.5: TIME 9.3m COST / $1.99 / SCORE 99/100 https://jonclegg.github.io/pacman-bakeoff/#claude-opus-5-5

Deepseek 4.1 Flash: TIME 2.8m / COST $1.89 / SCORE 72/100 https://jonclegg.github.io/pacman-bakeoff/dev/#deepseek-v4.1...

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