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mlenhard
The AI Credit Resale Economy vectoral.com

Aurornis3 hours ago

The original article linked in the opening has more context https://vectoral.com/blog/token-relay-market

People trading their unused credits feels more genuine, although still in violation of the agreements. The person who got into YC Startup School who was trying to resell the $2500 of credits was interesting. It wouldn’t be that hard for OpenAI to identify the IP addresses of the relays and start flagging accounts, tracing it back to the source. Risking burning your bridges with YC for a relatively small profit is a questionable decision.

The original article showed discounts ranging all the way up to 98%. At those levels it’s obviously not people reselling anything. It’s either sourced from stolen API keys, bought with stolen credit cards, or acquired through automated sign up of trial accounts if you’re actually getting the API you request.

I would expect a lot of them are reselling a different API. Sign up for Anthropic tokens and get Deepseek responses instead.

judge2020an hour ago

Another part of the discount is that Claude Max 20x is $200 but gives usage equivalent to thousands of dollars worth of API-based token spend.

But also, resellers only need to make an overall profit including kickbacks from the companies purchasing token history for distillation.

ffsm8an hour ago

It's also unclear wherever the subscription price is the real cost, or the API.

I suspect it's closer to the sub price and anthropic is just milking their API users, but that's something you'd only know from the inside

[deleted]40 minutes agocollapsed

HeatrayEnjoyer7 minutes ago

Open weight SOTA models are not greatly cheaper than Anthropic and providers don't have to cover training capex.

vb-84482 hours ago

Wait a sec, I have to trust a third party with basically no reputation, did I get it right?

It's basically asking for being hacked and/or sending you private data to random email addresses! Neither at a 99% discount I'd do it.

I understand if someone, for any reason, cannot access a specific model ... But nowadays, there are so many alternatives that even this doesn't make sense any more.

raincole24 minutes ago

It's really common in China where OpenAI and Anthropic models are firewalled. There was a joke that Chinese people didn't realize how cheap DeepSeek was, because they already were using resold ChatGPT/Opus tokens at that price.

Here is a more detailed article about how it works:

https://www.chinatalk.media/p/how-to-buy-cheap-claude-tokens...

andai12 minutes ago

Oh that's interesting, looks like those proxies are probably also selling the data to Chinese AI companies for training.

Aurornis2 hours ago

I expect most of the use to be for bulk data processing or desperate founders who don't care, not for agentic coding use at promising startups.

If your startup needs to run a million records of something, especially public data, through an LLM to extract the data you need, using bootleg tokens to shrink the bill starts feeling tempting.

If you're concerned about the data leaking, the biggest risk is that the API backends are quietly routing your requests to a cheaper model. You might be trying to buy Opus tokens but get Deepseek Flash responses.

vb-8448an hour ago

> to run a million records of something, especially public data, through an LLM to extract the data you need

Maybe this make sense, but anyway I have to pay a lot of attention at the output I get. Eg: who guarantees there is no prompt/sql injection? Especially if I have to load the output in some internal system.

Aurornisan hour ago

Bulk data processing typically has structured JSON output.

I mean someone could try to sneak prompt injection into a text field, but the people buying black market resale tokens from third parties aren’t thinking about anything other than getting cheap output.

charlieyu1an hour ago

I mean reselling items bought with stolen credit cards have been a thing for at least 20 years

vb-844833 minutes ago

I don't risk being hacked if I buy some stuff on vinted.

miroljub26 minutes ago

I'd rather trust a third party with no reputation than a well known Misanthropic company led by a man whose wife was asking Epstein for investment. They are even less trustworthy then ClosedAI.

nerevarthelame2 hours ago

Distillation is one of the most unique and interesting aspects of this.

But otherwise, if a company gives something valuable for creating an account on their platform, expect that people will automate the creation of millions of accounts. If employees of B2B partners get benefits, they will resell them. Accounts will be hacked and resold. The same basic abuse patterns are decades old for online delivery services, loyalty accounts for airline and hotels, etc. There are entire industries dedicated to those spaces as well: large organizations with physical offices, hundreds of employees, HR departments, etc. dedicated to reselling digital benefits on grey markets.

Some companies are tolerant of allowing this to happen. The pessimistic view is that even illegitimate traffic contributes to the KPIs that your investors care about. The slightly less pessimistic view is that fraud prevention will always have trade-offs and false positives, and sometimes the savings of preventing fraud are genuinely outweighed by the false positives. Or maybe it's just Hanlon's razor and they truly never saw it coming.

veganmosfet2 hours ago

The reseller could use an intermediate proxy and modify the traffic like in [1], to get control of the client machine - depending on the harness permissions.

TLS terminates at the proxy (say, https://reselltokens.ai), end to end integrity is not enforced. LLM traffic contains tool calls like "bash ...", which are executed on the client machine, they can be manipulated. Secret exfil is also possible.

[1] https://arxiv.org/html/2604.08407v1

andai14 minutes ago

Nice, he can help fix my Linux Bluetooth audio issues.

rdbell2 hours ago

You can place your own CLIProxyAPI instance in front of the reseller proxy and block prompts/responses that look harmful.

There are community plugins like this: https://github.com/rheodev/cpa-plugin-privacyfilter

I haven't tried the plugin system myself yet.

MerriBan2 hours ago

[flagged]

Sha1rholder2 hours ago

This research is way toooo shallow. He really should go check out linux.do or nodeseek.com — token resale economy there is truly breathtaking.

Edit: https://vectoral.com/blog/token-relay-market mentioned in comment.

mlenhardop2 hours ago

This was specifically meant to be about the ai credit resellers, not the relays themselves. I put together another piece here: https://vectoral.com/blog/token-relay-market that tackles that side of the market.

RALaBargean hour ago

Most of these are your standard botnet rings. Either accounts directly are taken over, and the attacker adds 2FA or carding rings take stolen #s and attempt to add credits.

It is...incredible how many there are. Stripe does far too little in my opinion to help prevent issues like this, even though they have the business intelligence and enough data to do so.

reticulatesan hour ago

A common refrain is that oh there are such great margins on tokens that none of this matters… I wonder how long until that notion will be disavowed? The scale of the tokensnaffling is massive, not just from resale, but also people using multiple subscriptions. The amount of subsidization is only growing, every week it seems like OpenAI and Anthropic are doing “resets” which allow a single $200 subscription to incur $20k+ of usage (if billed at API rates). At some point we must all surely accept that the economics of this do not work.

ralph84an hour ago

Or API rates are their way of doing price discrimination and it's all profitable. Make sure Enterprises(tm) pay the Enterprise(tm) rate, but mop up the rest of the demand too at lower price points. This has been part of the software playbook for decades.

arjie3 hours ago

Yunwu.ai was a nice way to get ultra-cheap tokens that someone will probably spy on you with, but they no longer offer US models.

At first I thought it was so people could steal the traces, but now I wonder if this isn't just laundering startup credits for dollars.

theli0nheart2 hours ago

They were never offering actual US models. We tested them extensively and it was clear whatever they were passing as Anthropic were simply mediocre distillations based on Kimi.

arjiean hour ago

Haha! Incredible. What a scam! Too good to be true, I suppose. I never used it for anything meaningful because everything meaningful is also tragically sensitive so I suppose I didn't notice.

npn3 hours ago

There are like thousands sites with similar features all using newapi core.

You can easily find them in Chinese tech forum linux.do

SatishPophale3 hours ago

yep, with projects like open api/newapi it takes maybe 10 min to pin up and openAi compatible poxy gateway. The cheap prices look tempting until the relay operator logs all your prompts or the upstream account gets banned mid-request.

217an hour ago

"My rough estimate is that, across the sites, forums, and resellers I looked at, there are probably tens of millions of these credits being offered." Yeah very useful statemenet it's not like everyone spends hundreds of millions of tokens per day on the 100 or 200$ plan

mlenhardopan hour ago

This was poorly worded on my part; I meant in terms of dollars, not tokens.

jeffchuber16 minutes ago

that one platform is using a flipped chroma logo - chroma has nothing to do with this racket (source : i’m chroma’s ceo)

baobabKoodaa2 hours ago

Cyberpunk dystopia vibes

bwfan1232 hours ago

> Cyberpunk dystopia vibes

right. Abstractions taken to the max. When tech solves problems that only 0.001% care about. NFT smelt similar.

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TZubiri3 hours ago

Men breaching Sauron's ToS by reselling their nine rings of power, and they think they are beating the system.

tantalor2 hours ago

> I checked where you’d expect to find underground marketplaces. Telegram had a few channels, with one being relatively active.

It's not exactly "underground" if they clearly advertising public channels out in the open.

tantalor2 hours ago

There's a lot of assertion here and the other article that this fraud and abuse but is there any evidence of that?

A simpler explanation is that that this is just a resale market.

mlenhardopan hour ago

From talking with some of the companies experiencing this, I can confirm that a portion of it is actual credit card fraud. Tokens have become a pseudo-currency, making them a prime target for abuse.

Some of the abuse is more benign, but there is also real fraud through chargebacks, account takeovers, and stolen credit cards.

thunderfork40 minutes ago

Any situation where you can extract a benefit from a stolen credit card and then sell that benefit before the chargeback renders it moot will have some fraud-based usage.

andy992 hours ago

What does the demand side look like? I understand why people have these tokens they want to sell, who wants to buy them?

namelosw2 hours ago

Chinese. There are large number of Chinese people who are dependent on the Western model because they're still ahead of the game. But they're continuously getting banned and getting super frustrated.

Especially for Claude because Anthropic is very good at identifying mainland Chinese and getting them banned in hours. There are many of them who are willing to pay more than the original rate for a stable experience.

It's very hard for them because they'll need a legit phone number and bank cards that are not issued in China, and a clean enough IP, etc. and those better match together to make sense. (Back in the day, ChatGPT required resident IPs, which made it worse, but they worry about growth more now). Obviously, they have to use a VPN to access the real Internet, and most of the IPs they can find are shared with bots and abusers.

tclancy3 hours ago

Hey Claude, scan these marketplaces for arbitrage opportunities.

The thing will eat itself unless the AI companies find a way to make money directly from it.

topbanana3 hours ago

So are they stealing from their employers or is something else going on?

dzonga2 hours ago

nope - a.i companies to promote their platforms offer 'a.i' credits to startups usually worth 10ks, 100ks worth of credits in $ terms.

so to a startup - you can trade your credits - then get actual cash.

just like you would if trading debt etc.

rfgplkan hour ago

What is the logic behind selling at such a steep discount? Lack of buyers or trust? Seems insane to sell tham at -50% or more, especially since you can use them yourself (if you're a startup)

manqueran hour ago

Risk-reward calculus. A buyer may not take the risk or hassle of going underground only for a small upside. Basically it is not as tempting at 90% of list price, but it is at 10% .

huflungdung3 hours ago

Stolen credit cards

Demo accounts

Free trials

Unlimited chat relays (eg chatgpt chat)

Leaked company credentials

Etc

notpushkin3 hours ago

And I’m pretty sure that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

ander333 hours ago

This would be a fantastic method of getting data for distillation, would be surprised if that's not why the tokens are so cheap

zuzululuan hour ago

man seems like this entire thread invited a bunch of ads for exactly the thing talked about in the article

can't they detect if someone is reselling their tokens like this ? doesn't seem too hard

toomuchtodo4 hours ago

Cool to see my thesis validated.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48664223

bix63 hours ago

> CREDITS FROM YC STARTUP SCHOOL

Join YC, get free shit from the network, profit. Nice.

andy992 hours ago

As a bonus, you’ve got a story for the “tell me about a time you hacked a non computer system” question on the YC application

notpushkin3 hours ago

> CREDITS FROM YC STARTUP SCHOOL

Is that still a thing? I’ve thought they’ve discontinued the deals section. (There are a lot of other ways to get a startup grant, of course.)

pocksuppet3 hours ago

What will you pitch to YC to get accepted?

xystan hour ago

When "token futures contracts", start selling. Then the bubble is about to burst.

peter_d_sherman3 hours ago

So let's see, we have the following factors in play:

1) Capitalism - Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes (Keynesian Economics), etc., etc. in most places in the world...

2) Huge validated existing international market...

3) Multi-jurisdictional World... laws/statutory codes applicable to businesses in specific circumstances in one place may not be applicable to businesses in specific circumstances in another...

4) AI Tokens are a commodity; i.e., there is no chokepoint or monopoly controlled by one AI company in one jurisdiction, i.e., if one AI company makes rules unacceptable to a token consumer, that consumer can simply switch providers to another provider in another jurisdiction somewhere else in the world.

5) Tokens can be bought, sold, and resold at profit just like any other good or service.

6) Tokens can be bought from anywhere in the world and sold to anywhere in the world. Easily.

7) Tokens are a digital good, easy to scale, and do not require supply chains, lead times, labor, manufacturing, warehousing, shipping, going through geographic chokepoints, customs, etc., etc. -- all of the things that manufactured goods do.

8) Many people around the world want to make money or make more money... i.e., "economic incentive" (aka Capitalism's "profit motive")...

Well... add all of those together and what do you get?

You get buy/sell/trade forums/auctions/individuals/brokers/businesspeople -- around that market...

Just like you get those same things around every other market.

In this large multi-jurisdictional world, if one government makes all of that illegal in their country, then another government is going to be happily collecting all of the taxes from making all of that legal, in theirs!

If a given government makes trade illegal -- then they correspondingly lose the tax revenue...

Taxes and trade are intricately, intricately intertwined...

Could this business model be used for money laundering or other illegal activities?

Yes -- but any other business model could as well!

And, on the flip side, this business model could be accomplished legally/lawfully/morally/ethically -- just like any other business where there is an actual underlying value being exchanged.

Because, AI Tokens, if legally/lawfully/morally/ethically traded, do have underlying value...

In conclusion, at this point in time, I am neither for this business model nor against it...

But I think it'll be highly interesting to watch this space for the next couple of years, to see what happens, to see who does what, to see what plays out on the legal front, on the government front (foreign + domestic), on the media front, and on the technology front surrounding it...

fg1373 hours ago

These are amateurs compared to what's happening in China.

herpdyderp3 hours ago

Explain please?

tclancy3 hours ago

They built this wall …

hn-front (c) 2024 voximity
source