insaider6 hours ago
Is this big enough to produce a Tsunami? Apparently maybe only a small localised one, but I'm supposed to be getting the ferry from Lombok to Bali shortly and two of those have already burnt down the last 2 weeks!
decimalenough6 hours ago
A ferry in the open ocean is one of the safer places to be during a tsunami. Remember, it's not a surf-style wave, but a gradual increase in water level.
throwaway8943453 hours ago
boarding the ferry may not be the most pleasant, however.
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Polizeiposaune4 hours ago
Indonesia's tsunami bulletins appear to be here:
https://rtsp.bmkg.go.id/publicbull.php
They've declared the event over - some waves were generated but nothing particularly large. Bulletin 3 for the recent quake includes wave height observations - maximum reported was 94cm; most were under 50cm.
Grimburger6 hours ago
Tsunamis are only an issue close to shore. In the ocean it's barely a mild wave.
In a boat going further out is the safest thing you can do if there's a tsunami warning.
stelliosk43 minutes ago
Depends on how the tsunami was created. By earthquake or by land slide. For example, the following tsunami no boat is safe.
wahnfrieden5 hours ago
Safer than going inland..?
lostlogin4 hours ago
There have been 70m tsunamis and lakes get tsunamis too, so… maybe?
wiml6 hours ago
I've seen "possible tsunami" pre-warnings, and a sea level gauge at/near Lembar showing sea level oscillations - so I would recommend keeping a close watch on some information source that's better than HN comment threads, yes.
lostlogin4 hours ago
Correct, but also, I’d bet there is a lurking tsunami expert here somewhere. Nothing is ever too niche for HN.
Melatonic23 minutes ago
There's a tsunami warning list you can sign up for. As well as global earthquake alerts. In my experience they arrive very quickly
Usually earthquakes on land don't trigger tsunamis but are more damaging locally
bdickason5 hours ago
I would upgrade the ferry and make sure to get a high quality one given all the swell in the ocean already (most of bali had 6ft+ waves yesterday) and this incident. Not worth the risk.
seanmcdirmid3 hours ago
Lombok will have lots of higher ground at least. You really just have to be careful on and near the beach.
yxhuvud4 hours ago
Easily big enough, but how deep it was generated and how the movements happened do impact the risk a lot.
reilly30006 hours ago
Safe travels, friend.
pestatije5 hours ago
the tsunami risk is negligible compared to the fire risk
insaider2 hours ago
Agreed, currently aboard and on high alert, pray for me HN
bdickasonan hour ago
Let us know you made it ok!
rootsudo5 hours ago
Interesting times for the ferry indeed
CookieCrisp6 hours ago
I know large earthquakes are effectively random (ignoring aftershocks) but this feels like a lot this year, yeah?
HaloZero4 hours ago
Yeah, I looked this up and USGS literally has a page about this.
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/why-are-we-having-so-many-or-so-fe...
According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 16 major earthquakes in any given year. That includes 15 earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range and one earthquake magnitude 8.0 or greater. In the past 40-50 years, our records show that we have exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes about a dozen times.
You can see a map of ALL the 7+ here:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-89.0318...
The search filtering is a bit hard to find in the UI but the parameters in the URL can be modified. (We had 16+ 7.0 last year as a comparison)
astrobe_2 hours ago
I've always wondered if the melting of glaciers would move masses from one place to another and induce some tectonic moves. But the mass is most likely not significant enough; water/ice has a relatively low density after all.
dev1ycan2 hours ago
It's more likely related to planetary positions and or solar cycle/activity, "recent studies suggest a notable statistical correlation between specific solar magnetic milestones and the shifting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation"
Like in theory it doesn't make sense that el niño causes earthquakes, yet there seems to be more prominent ones during el niño however if both are related to sun cycle/activity it would make more sense (seeing how the moon affects earth as well)
smolder32 minutes ago
The deep earth isn't all that well studied, so while we know a fair amount about plate tectonics, there could be hidden factors influencing that action in ways we can't anticipate from recorded history. Who's to say there aren't 1000 or 10k year cycles of earthquakes? Something novel could happen too, but our records don't let us set probabilities for 10k year natural disasters the way we can with 100 year tropical storms, floods, or earthquakes.
defrost20 minutes ago
> Who's to say there aren't 1000 or 10k year cycles of earthquakes?
The Stratigraphy department of the International Union of Geological Sciences would be the obvious first port of call.
Follow that up with an off book chat with digital archivists for commercial oil and gas exploration geologists.
Melatonic20 minutes ago
Or influence by the moon just as it pulls on oceans. Lot of liquid magma down there.
Or maybe some once in a rare incident involving coronal mass ejections somehow affecting the core of the planet. Could even be a delayed effect.
teacpde6 hours ago
Yea, feel like a lot of big ones this year, but looking it up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2026 it is actually not necessarily worse than previous years.
marcosdumay3 hours ago
Given we are barely beyond half of the year, that puts us close to the outlier that was 2023 in the 7+ range.
2023 also had a strong el-niño event.
ortusdux6 hours ago
76 quakes ranking 7.0+ so far this decade, including 10 this year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_2021%E2%80...
keeda3 hours ago
Sure feels like it in my corner of the Bay Area, since we had a prolonged earthquake swarm earlier this year, even hitting a record number of earthquakes per day or something like that.
beloch4 hours ago
Earthquakes can occur in swarms[1] (distinct from aftershocks), with many of a similar size (i.e. Not a big quake followed by smaller ones) occurring in a small area over "relatively short" periods of time (i.e. days, weeks, or years).
The USGS map shows the 7.7 quake being followed by about 19 other smaller quakes near or in Indonesia within just a few hours. These are probably aftershocks.
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jeffrwells5 hours ago
HN highlighting a lot this year, is all
kermatt6 hours ago
I was wondering the same: https://www.morageology.com/earthquake_year.php
LeBit6 hours ago
> Note: While it may look like there have been an increase in total number of earthquakes since about 2020, this is actually due to the increasing number of seismic stations installed in the park since 2020 that are able to detect smaller (<= 0.5 magnitude) earthquakes. If you look at the number of earthquakes >= 1.0, the rate has remained about the same.
jwilber4 hours ago
Somehow I don’t think people are confusing raw seismic station earthquake counts with the three back-to-back high profile/magnitude earthquakes that recently occurred in Venezuela, Colombia, and Indonesia.
I understand the point, maybe those recent earthquakes aren’t ood, but still.
Melatonic19 minutes ago
There are also likely a lot of earthquakes we don't notice because they don't effect populated areas. There's a lot of ocean around the ring of fire.
goda906 hours ago
Why does this page say there have been 0 >2.5mag earthquakes this year?
teraflop5 hours ago
Because this particular sensor network is only monitoring earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest of the USA, not worldwide.
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jtfrench4 hours ago
It does feel like a lot
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burnt-resistor6 hours ago
So Google Earth says the ocean depth at the epicenter is 6,286 ft / 1,916 m, but I couldn't find a corresponding tsunami alert or evaluation of risk.
mikeyouse6 hours ago
Looks like it was a strike-slip fault, so a much lower tsunami risk compared to a subduction / dip-slip fault.
lightedman4 hours ago
Beachball (moment tensor) says it's a thrust fault with a ton of lateral movement (aka attempted subduction.) https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkt2... eyeballs filled in are pretty much thrust faults and horizontal like that means subduction-possible movement.
ttul3 hours ago
What is the moment tensor in this context?
numb_code5 hours ago
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navigate83106 hours ago
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