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AI not affecting job market much so far, New York Fed says money.usnews.com

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/09/are-bu...


Molitor59013 days ago

I've seen it affecting in a few ways: Less customer service employees at call centers, replaced by lengthy, egregiously pedantic AI systems. Some fast food places are replacing employees with an AI drive through. I've also seen AI health coaching services that removes the dietitian/nutritionist/health coach from the equation. Not quite AI, but getting there, are the self checkouts slowly replacing front line cashiers, etc.

So I think it is affecting the job market, but not in the white collar, higher paying jobs that people tend to notice.

beepbooptheory3 days ago

What is AI providing in the drive through situation? It just feels to me like much of this is "AI" in the business buzz sense, not generative LLMs or whatever doing any kind of work. Like, we have all been struggling with call center "AI" for a long time before this, I personally have not experienced an LLM chatbot call, but plenty of things asking me "is this information correct?"

Like how would some of this even work in reality? Can you go through those drive throughs and ask it to recite a sonnet about chicken nuggets? Clearly no, but then it begs the question of what the idea, the purported advance, even is here with much of this. Like we have had relatively advanced speech recognition for a while, I don't see the added utility or need of being able to go through the drive through and saying: "the number of hotdogs I want is a prime number that is more than 2 but less than 5."

It just feels so clearly silly if you stop and think about it for two seconds. So many hammers, not enough nails... We are just banging at walls at this point.

lukevp3 days ago

“I’d like 2 cheeseburgers, and 4 fries. No mayo or mustard. Actually make one of them a double, and one with bacon. Oh how much if I make the first a combo?”

You think this conversation could be handled with the tech of 4 years ago? Siri can’t even turn off the lights and tell me a joke in the same request. Humans do not deliver all information in order (eg. The all the instructions refer to the burgers not the fries, but you only know that because you understand the essential nature of fries and what they typically include). That’s what AI in the drive thru is for.

fluoridation3 days ago

I'm not sure current tech could reliably take that order, honestly. There's essentially 0 chance it would try to disambiguate the meaning of "one of them", and from there it's a tossup whether you'll get a double cheeseburger, a double box of fries, or double mayo.

MontyCarloHall3 days ago

Current tech is pretty dang close. I gave the order to ChatGPT and it parsed it almost perfectly [0], even handling the ambiguity about what happens if you add a combo to an order that already includes several fries à la carte. The only thing it missed is that I didn't actually order the combo (but merely want to know how much the upgrade is), but I'm sure some fine-tuning could solve that. (Come to think of it, a fast food restaurant would consider this implicit upsell as a feature.)

The main challenge AI would face is people who come by at 3 AM drunk and stoned, indecisively slurring through their order, but I imagine there'd be a system to redirect these edge cases to an actual human.

[0] https://chatgpt.com/share/68ba2233-9f48-8011-905a-c69cc5e91b...

ryoshu2 days ago

Pretty dang close isn't the same as accurate for an exchange of time and money. Voice->text, with a noisy background, is a particularly hard problem. Especially with hardware not designed to limit background noise. Try it. Whisper is still the leading speech->text model in our tests, but add noise reduction, echo, diarization, etc. It's a hard problem.

[deleted]2 days agocollapsed

fluoridation2 days ago

>Come to think of it, a fast food restaurant would consider this implicit upsell as a feature.

Yeah, just what every restaurant manager wants: to deal with customers who paid more for things they didn't order.

idiotsecant3 days ago

It can't. Not reliably. I think every major chain that was trying it has ripped it out.

It'll definitely be a thing within 5 years, max, but it's not mature enough for production yet

beepbooptheory2 days ago

I agree with sibling replies but more tangentially maybe: why is it that sometimes the point of these things is that I do not have to modify my behavior at all, while the restaurant can pay one less person, but other times the point is all about modifying it so the company can pay one less person?

Like here: if the restaurant really wants to get rid of their intercom person, why not make it self checkout, no AI required? What is actually saved or gained either way? There is nothing intrinsic about this situation that requires me to use natural language to order something. People order tons of food online these days anyway!

Like I just dont think it makes sense and I also probably don't think the economics of this would work out with fast food restaurant scale.

Again, just step back and think about it for a moment: lots of this really doesn't make sense. The world is not really full of tasks a good prompt can solve. There a million things that aren't "produce this python script" or "summarize this article probably correctly."

Why can't it just be what it is? Why does it absolutely have to be everything or nothing? So much of the thought around this feels so clearly wrong headed, its just starting to feel truly absurd.

kilroy1233 days ago

To be fair, this would trip up a lot of _humans_ as well.

zerr3 days ago

It's a horrible tendence. The first thing I ask to such AI customer service chats is to let me speak with a real human.

StopDisinfo9102 days ago

It's funny because I had my first encounter with one last week and my first reaction when I realised it was a robot was "let me talk to a human".

I am mostly ok talking to a bot for FAQ still queries but I just don't want to interact with a machine when things are going wrong. I want someone with actual empathy even if they refuse to use it.

lazide2 days ago

Empathy is probably part of it, but I guess what matters to me is someone able to think outside of the box at least a little, and try to solve an actual problem - since the problem is likely caused by the shape of the box.

The biggest issue with these systems is they are designed to handle the common case. But if I had a common case, I literally wouldn’t be having an issue!

Humans usually recognize it pretty quickly if you explain it to them, ‘AI’ usually just keeps steering you to the same box.

Though recently I did hit a system that immediately sent me to a human when I described the problem, which was refreshing!

jowea2 days ago

I guess they are made for the common case since a lot of people's first actions is to talk to someone and most cases are common. Since I usually have already gotten through the FAQ, I also rarely am helped by the AI CS.

r_lee2 days ago

Let me translate this to Senior Vice President of GenAGI innovation speak:

"omg our AI-interaction KPIs went up so much!!! Customers love to chat with the AIs, they send messages back and forth really rapidly like 10 times in the first 30 seconds!!" (to get to the humans...)

time to lay off everyone!

And then everybody clapped and cheered

copperx2 days ago

I hate AI CS with a passion. It has neither the information or the authority to be effective.

AlecSchueler2 days ago

I've known so many people who were destroyed by customer service work in call centres though. Most turned to drugs, some to suicide, the lucky few made it out but still carry the trauma. Timed toilet breaks, eight hours of angry customers, for basically minimum wage with no benefits. It's one of the worst environments for a person to be in and seeing it become automated I'm definitely aware of there being upsides as well.

griffzhowl2 days ago

That's only an upside if there are better alternatives for those people. If there are only worse alternatives, then obviously it's worse

I've worked in call centres a couple of times and found it depressing, but I've also worked in a restaurant washing dishes on sixteen hour shifts. To be honest, call centre was better

AlecSchueler2 days ago

Where is the line of what you find acceptable then? As long as there's no a alternative anything is ok?

Like I get what you're saying but some work is just cruel.

griffzhowl2 days ago

Yes, and some work is crueller than others.

What I'm saying is there's no upside to just getting rid of an option

AlecSchueler20 minutes ago

I outlined the upsides.

anthem20252 days ago

At least in Canada you can legally demand what it promises you.

wombatpm3 days ago

Walgreens is really pushing the AI phone system these days. It lies and says it can handle most requests, which I make and it tries to pawn me off on the website. The website which I had already been to, which recommended I speak with a pharmacist. I swear by the time it’s passed my call through it sounds like exasperated when it says “Just so you know, the pharmacy is open. . . .”

KylerAcea day ago

I just say "speak to a pharmacist", wait until it starts to say something about how it can help and then again "speak to a pharmacist". I only get a controlled medication though so maybe it can be used for others

cruffle_duffle3 days ago

You have to say “speak to the pharmacist” and it reminds you it can help so you say it again and it goes through.

wombatpm2 days ago

I’ll try that next. The flow use to be “pharmacy” “something else” phone answered by pharmacist. Then they threw Pharmacy Technicians into the mix. Then they centralized the pharmacy technicians into a call center.

I hate having to call. I hate having the system be insistent on hearing my problem first. 25 years with the same medications, if I’m calling it’s for something that is not usual. And if the system were truly trying to be helpful it would realize I’m calling about the insulin that is delayed when I specifically requested pickup today, and maybe it could figure out I need to transfer it to a pharmacy that has it in stock.

overfeed3 days ago

> Not quite AI, but getting there, are the self checkouts slowly replacing front line cashiers, etc.

There's some AI involved at some retailers - I bought 2 identical items and the second wouldn't scan at the self checkout, so I grabbed the first item and scanned it again, and the camera-watching, object-detection system threw a fit (and played back the video of me). I had to call a human to complete my purchase. My suspicion is it is smart enough to detect that I moved an "unscanned" item from my basket item into the bagging area, but not smart enough to figure out I wasn't trying to cheat.

rancar22 days ago

I’m in Portugal at the moment and went to their version of Target using Sensei [1] technology. I was with my little one who was grabbing things off the shelves while I put them back, and I was using a stroller not a store cart. The system worked flawlessly including consumed cafe purchases (coffee, pastry, and bread) along with per kg fruits and vegetables. One of the odd benefits is that I felt a bit safer with my little one roaming freely as I knew he was being carefully watched.

[1] https://www.sensei.tech/

rightbyte2 days ago

Those cameras are not there for the benefit of your toddler.

How can some big corp. recording and processing what he does possibly make you feel a bit safer?

bojan3 days ago

That sounds dystopic and I'm not sure it'd even be legal where I live.

Here they simply have a + button so you can set the amount of the item. No need to scan all of them.

Incipient2 days ago

The problem with the + button, is a user has two yoghurts, so scans and hits the + as they're both $2. The problem is that one was blueberry and once was strawberry.

Forcing users to scan everything fixes that but at least.

Making the users take longer isn't a concern of the shop.

Gud2 days ago

But those items aren’t identical and should be scanned separately.

StopDisinfo9102 days ago

These systems are often far more stupid than you think. A lot of them just block themselves if they think your hands went somewhere they shouldn't be and defer to a human then.

utyop22a day ago

Do you shop in Sainsburys in the UK by any chance?

This has happened to me too.

danaris2 days ago

Wegmans recently introduced carts with built-in scanners and scales to allow you to scan as you shop—I really like them overall, and use them every time I go there (which is only once every few months; it's 45 minutes away), even though I often need to get a second, regular cart to offload some of my bags to partway through shopping.

The one problem I've had with them is that they have a tendency to get confused if you try to scan more than one of the same thing in a row, and occasionally I'll have to go through quite a bit of trouble to make sure that I do pay for the 3rd item, and not just the first two...

DragonStrength3 days ago

Yes, but when Marc Benioff says he laid off thousands of customer service agents, the reporting is "Salesforce cuts tech workers using AI." The narrative in media is a total mess right now, and there are many in VC and AI-related companies ready to help muddy the waters further for their own benefit. Obviously, many small companies follow the media narrative.

echelon3 days ago

I work in the media space. AI is absolutely ripping through film, TV, and advertising.

Several medium sized studios I've talked with are bidding $50k for projects (eg. Netflix, HBO, Proctor & Gamble are typical clients) they used to bid $400k on, and they're winning more contracts. They don't need to shoot in person in Venice for pharma ads or animate elaborate TV show intros anymore.

This is having a huge impact to the fundamentals of how they do business. They haven't laid anyone off yet, but they're talking about the ramifications if this gets cheaper.

bob10293 days ago

Have these studios actually shipped any of their projects to their customers yet? Do we have feedback from a quality perspective?

It's quite easy to promise dirt cheap services and get paperwork signed.

echelon3 days ago

Yes. You wouldn't recognize them as AI.

These studios are doing a lot of roto and comp work. It's highly touched up and edited.

zahlman3 days ago

> Do we have feedback from a quality perspective?

... Have you watched YouTube (without attempting first-party ad blocking) recently? The ads created with AI are pretty obvious, and pretty bad.

ortusdux3 days ago

Many people think all plastic surgery looks bad because, by definition, you don't notice the good examples.

zahlman3 days ago

Even if every ad on YouTube were AI-generated now, there would be enough bad examples for me to be negative on the entire idea.

echelon3 days ago

You're not the customer.

Also, if the viewer doesn't recognize or care, then it's a moot point.

ortusdux3 days ago

There is tons of bad CGI, but that hasn't stopped its near universal adoption.

utyop22a day ago

Lol CGI makes up a tiny portion purely because economically it makes sense.

Loughla3 days ago

My local news has started using AI bullshit they would've used B roll for in the past. And it's obvious. And it's very jarring.

IMSAI80803 days ago

What component of the production process is the AI being used for? Is AI video now good enough for green screen backgrounds or something like that?

rcxdude3 days ago

It's very powerful for various parts of VFX workflows. It's not gonna just be a full prompted shot, but more a means of creating and manipulating smaller elements in a shot with much less manual labor than before.

ToucanLoucan3 days ago

I can't speak for the industry side but as a consumer, I've noticed many cable TV ads in hotel rooms now are clearly using AI generated video. It looks like shit.

This is going to be the "bad chromakey" of this particular time period in terms of weirdly prolific visuals in media. Or if you prefer, the ads you used to see on late-night TV that were clearly broadcast from a poor quality VHS.

Cheap bullshit has always hung around our media apparatus, and it's just that: cheap bullshit. Tbh I just note it in the same way I've always done: well, that's a company I'm going to avoid doing business with if at all possible.

IMSAI80803 days ago

Now you mention it, I can see there's a lot of demand for very cheap video ads on YouTube and such and I can see those kind of productions using AI slop and not really caring. I was just surprised by the calibre of client the poster above mentioned, such as HBO and Netflix and such. That sounded more like AI video making an impact in higher class professional work.

ToucanLoucan3 days ago

I mean I'm sure they would LIKE to use AI. What sane company wouldn't explore the possibility? That said I think any serious creative team is going to run into headaches with it really, really quickly and give up on it.

ryoshu2 days ago

They do. I watched a person quit because they had to hand edit video frames that came out of AI. It would have been cheaper to do traditional VFX.

imtringued2 days ago

I believe you, but what I don't understand is why aren't these companies producing custom models tailored to their in-house needs? You'd think that Hollywood would have the most advanced image and video generation models, after all the studios have high quality training data and more importantly, they have the IP rights to that data.

Meanwhile back in reality it's Google that is massively ahead of literally everyone.

alehlopeh3 days ago

What are they doing with AI instead of eg. shooting in person in Venice?

[deleted]3 days agocollapsed

MontyCarloHall3 days ago

>Several medium sized studios […] don't need to animate elaborate TV show intros anymore.

What projects are these studios doing for HBO? Its shows generally have high enough production value that AI slop in intros would be a no-no (unless this has dramatically changed under Zaslav's leadership).

DanielHB2 days ago

Self checkout in supermarkets apparently is quite a rocky thing, some chains see profits go down after implementing them. The potential for catastrophic mistakes in LLMs is very high, like ordering 3000 big macs.

Sure in the case of 3000 big macs it would be caught by the buyer or the cooks, but ordering 6 instead of 3 will not. This will cause complaints, complaints need more people to handle, etc.

to11mtm2 days ago

There was a fun video floating around a few days ago where someone tried ordering 18,000 cups of water... It certainly got them a human being lol

r_lee2 days ago

Honestly those problems will get sorted

But I wonder what the effect will be like otherwise, is it gonna be a turnoff knowing you're talking to a robot?

Like what if your cafe barista's were replaced by robots?

Maybe I wouldn't mind so much at first but I'd probably just switch to some place where there were baristas, because why wouldn't I just get a canned coffee from a supermarket if "cheap" was all I cared about

immibis3 days ago

I once called a hotel. A suspiciously regular voice answered. I asked if it was a machine. It said yes, it's [AI marketing bullshit here]. I asked if it had a room. It said no, because it's [AI BS] and doesn't need a physical presence such as a room. I hung up and called another hotel.

sequin9 hours ago

This could have been an amazing short sci-fi story.

r_lee2 days ago

That was a major success, according to the KPI the customer inquiry was resolved in under 60 seconds all with AGI!

Manuel_D2 days ago

A lot of the applications listed don't need humans and probably don't even need "AI" either. At least not beyond speech to text.

When my Xbox 360 hit the red ring of death, I called in to Microsoft support and went through the flow to replace it with just pre-recorded responses and speech to text. This was in 2007.

zahlman3 days ago

> Less customer service employees at call centers, replaced by lengthy, egregiously pedantic AI systems.

Is this actually worse than being on hold forever to talk to someone following a script?

> Some fast food places are replacing employees with an AI drive through.

What, as in it transcribes your order with Whisper and tries to upsell you through ChatGPT? One more reason I'm glad not to have a car-centric lifestyle, I guess. The kiosks inside the store might be vibe-coded now but at least I get a traditional UI that lets me specify things directly (even if the kitchen staff will ignore most requested customizations).

themafia3 days ago

> Is this actually worse than being on hold forever to talk to someone following a script?

Yes. It means that common or sudden issues with the provider are not understood internally and huge amounts of customer time becomes wasted on a system with an out of date understanding of the service.

> as in it transcribes your order with Whisper and tries to upsell you through ChatGPT

Essentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfz2EtWWPcQ

> One more reason I'm glad not to have a car-centric lifestyle

I'm always amazed at this logic. It makes me wonder if you either have an incredible amount of free time or you don't rely on any service provided to you with a vehicle, or are you just not considering them when pondering this way openly?

> at least I get a traditional UI

That has almost no accessibility for the disabled or has accessible functionality that's terribly tacked on as an afterthought.

zahlman3 days ago

> I'm always amazed at this logic. It makes me wonder if you either have an incredible amount of free time or you don't rely on any service provided to you with a vehicle, or are you just not considering them when pondering this way openly?

Not really sure what you're getting at. Yes, I would get in an ambulance, or even a taxi, if I really needed one. That's not what "not car-centric" is about. No, I don't need things delivered to me and I don't need a car to access goods and services. I don't buy a lot in the first place; public transit works acceptably here; I'm capable of walking several km (and I'd spend the time on other forms of exercise otherwise); I mostly cook my own meals.

And there are parts of the world where public transit is actually good and it's often rational to take it even if trip time is your only consideration.

> That has almost no accessibility for the disabled or has accessible functionality that's terribly tacked on as an afterthought.

Yes, I didn't say it was good. But you can also still just talk to a cashier at the front counter here.

themafia3 days ago

I was being a bit of a harsh hipster there; however, I always think about the sheer number of vehicles required just to keep your electricity or high speed internet running and how often I see that type of vehicle in a drive through. I think it's sometimes a little easy to forget why our lives are as convenient as they are.

immibis2 days ago

In places without widespread drivethroughs they still have electricity and internet.

Non-car-centric doesn't mean no cars. It means a society not centered around the crazy amounts of cars.

A lot of those types of workers who have vans full of tools use them as their main vehicles. That van being in the drive through doesn't mean the drive through is supporting the societal function that's advertised on the van. It just means a worker who does that for a living is currently buying food there.

zahlman2 days ago

> the sheer number of vehicles required just to keep your electricity or high speed internet running

Yes, well, in large part that's due to choices other people could also make differently.

semi-extrinsic3 days ago

> > One more reason I'm glad not to have a car-centric lifestyle

> I'm always amazed at this logic.

Not OP and maybe it's just my European showing, but I own a brand-new car yet frequently go 4-5 days without actually driving it. Because going to work and dropping off kids at daycare using a bicycle is literally faster than doing it in a car.

StanislavPetrov3 days ago

Whenever the issue of cars come up the gaping divide between Europeans and Americans rears its ugly head. It's like someone living at the equator telling the Alaska resident that though they own a winter hat, they rarely feel the need to use it. In many areas of Europe it is not only possible, but convenient to get around without a car. In the overwhelming majority of the United States it's impossible or inconvenient with only a couple of cities (like NYC) where it's even feasible. In fact, a growing number of eateries and coffee places in the USA are solely accessible via the drive through. They don't accept walk in customers at all and have no dining area.

victorbjorklund2 days ago

But isnt the problem that america was built by americans to be car-centric? Most americans dont live in the middle of nowhere in a forest cabin or on a ranch. No one is saying individuals in america are bad for using a car when the system is broken. The critic is about the system.

immibis2 days ago

This was a deliberate political decision by the USA. It wasn't an accident and it isn't because of geography.

cryptonector3 days ago

> replaced by lengthy, egregiously pedantic AI systems.

Don't forget hallucinating too.

DragonStrength3 days ago

Amazon's hallucinating a fake 1-800 number for me to call is both peak Amazon and peak AI bubble.

freedomben3 days ago

A couple of things. I'm not disputing the findings here, but I do think there are some caveats to be aware of.

Firstly, this doesn't seem to differentiate between fields/industries. It's entirely possible for AI to devastate a particular segment (like graphic design or software dev, etc) while still appearing low-impact on the overall.

Secondly,

> "Businesses reported a notable increase in AI use over the past year, yet very few firms reported AI-induced layoffs," New York Fed economists wrote in the blog.

Is this only relying on self-reporting? What company wants to be the lightning rod who comes out and says, "we laid off a bunch of people and replaced with AI"? Maybe for huge public companies that can't fudge it this would be ok, but relying on self-reports comes with an inherent risk of bias

missedthecue3 days ago

I don't think AI is actively laying people off by replacing entire roles, but I think it is preventing hires that would have happened. In terms of employment figures, this can have a similar effect.

I'm in a small growing tech company and I can say as a matter of fact that in a world without AI we would have made several hires in the past 18 months. Because of LLMs and agents my team doesn't have the need to bring more people in. It's as simple as that.

physix3 days ago

That's right. As a tech company, we can now do more with the people we have.

arthurcolle3 days ago

Marc Benioff at Salesforce is saying exactly this

And Brian Armstrong at Coinbase

kevsim3 days ago

Exactly. If they just lay people off, that's just cost cutting, and potentially seen as a bad sign. If they're saying they're laying people off because they're replacing them with AI, then they're innovative!

hobs3 days ago

The question is how does the product outlook appear? Most large companies do layoffs constantly to appease investors and nobody blinks twice, why would they care if you made the P&L even better if it doesn't degrade the product in their eyes?

wombatpm3 days ago

I really think layoffs and stock buybacks within 12 months of each other should be prohibited, if not downright make stock buybacks illegal. Have extra capital? Then pay a dividend.

arealaccount3 days ago

Would they be allowed to pay a dividend within 12 months of a layoff?

throwaway298123 days ago

[dead]

ericmcer3 days ago

They aren't replacing people directly though, like an AI can't fill a seat that a person used to. The claim seems to be that individuals are more productive now so less people are needed.

Measuring productivity has been attempted by every big tech co. and has never really had amazing results. So to claim they can lay off 1,000 people because of "AI" means they must have measured some % increase in individual productivity and know they can function with less people.

Or it's just a big excuse to cut low performers and compensate for overhiring.

InsideOutSanta3 days ago

> What company wants to be the lightning rod who comes out and says, "we laid off a bunch of people and replaced with AI"?

Isn't that precisely what all publicly traded companies want to say, and are often saying? I feel like I read a new headline of some sociopathic CEO bragging about how many people he managed to lay off thanks to AI every day.

MarkusQ3 days ago

There are two levels here. It isn't affecting the actual job market (what the Fed's talking about), but it's having a huge impact on the narratives surrounding it and the pipelines feeding into it (e.g. resume spamming and slush pipe filtering).

johnnyanmac2 days ago

>"Indeed, for those already employed, our results indicate AI is more likely to result in retraining than job loss, similar to our findings from last year

I guess that angle it doesn't contradict this other posting earlier today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45121342

Can't be laid off if you were never hired.

>The New York Fed blog noted that the modest impact on jobs so far may not hold in the future. "Looking ahead, firms anticipate more significant layoffs and scaled-back hiring as they continue to integrate AI into their operations," New York Fed researchers wrote.

Oh okay, so the title should be "AI not affecting the [financial] Job Market... yet"

sheepscreek3 days ago

AI may not affect tech jobs in NYC and other marquee locations and big city hubs in the near future. We could see a trend of smaller office locations get shuttered, and more people asked to relocate to major hubs/HQs. So I can understand the picture in NYC.

But if they’re talking about New York state as a whole, then I’d question their data/or inference. Companies in the area haven’t hired much in the last couple of years. Now we’ve got more layoff pressure on top of the non-existent hiring. The other day, Mark Benioff (Salesforce CEO) very clearly said on TV that his main problem is that he “need(s) fewer heads”.

Edit: Lightly updated my outlook to sound less decisive because I don’t really know anymore. So much is up in the air. Policy decisions at the government level could alter how it all plays out.

esafak3 days ago

dang3 days ago

We'll put that link in the top text too. Thanks!

Guid_NewGuid3 days ago

Best as I can tell, and I'm just some guy, is there is a real problem with the job market, not just in the US. AI is mainly interesting for the media to report on and hype for CEOs and the kind of MBA airheads no one with any self respect should pay attention to. It's a fairly cool search, synthesis and retrieval tool with real value but it's not as impactful as 'thoughtleaders' want us to believe.

In the US as elsewhere it's a combination of factors, COVID overhiring and inflation, interest rates going up, market concentration and, US specific, the since Trump-reversed Trump-imposed tax changes. While this reversal probably helps the job market some in the immediate term the indicators of the fundamentals are flashing red everywhere and outside of the US it all just continues to be part of the same Omnirecession since 2008.

oarla3 days ago

There was a discussion last week about AI taking away entry level jobs: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45052423

Maybe it hasn’t come for jobs that are not entry level yet.

dang3 days ago

Thanks! Macroexpanded:

Evidence that AI is destroying jobs for young people - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45121342 - Sept 2025 (313 comments)

AI adoption linked to 13% decline in jobs for young U.S. workers: study - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45052423 - Aug 2025 (629 comments)

johnnyanmac2 days ago

>Maybe it hasn’t come for jobs that are not entry level yet.

You don't layoff what you don't hire, so ou can argue it "hasn't affected the job market" if hiring freezes are just that. Not growing, but not really declining either.

itqwertz3 days ago

The AI hype seems to be a smokescreen for mass layoffs from the CoVid era. The increased attention on the H-1B visa’s hiring process and labor market impact reveals a far more underreported and significant contributor to job shortages. Also, a lot of these companies have existed way longer than they should have.

Be happy you’re not employed in tech course content creation or something that is directly replaceable TODAY, like language translation or low-level graphic design.

notahacker3 days ago

> The AI hype seems to be a smokescreen for mass layoffs from the CoVid era

This. Better to tell markets "we can now downsize our workforce due to incredible efficiencies achieved by our AI initiative" than "we hired too many people, grew slower than expected and now we're making cuts"

underlipton3 days ago

A little tinfoil birdie told me that even the Covid era itself (and the resultant mass layoffs during, mass hiring following, and mass layoffs following that) were a smokescreen for (bond?) market instability. I personally tend to think that both were more of a, "Don't let a good crisis go to waste," situation.

Market hiccups? Use a pandemic panic to justify printing a ton of money.

Printed too much money? Distribute it to the "right" people through a hiring frenzy, personnel you totally need in order to build a metaverse or whatever.

Money ran out + overleveraging during the boom + market changes caused by the rapid socioeconomic shifts (e.g., commercial real estate tanking)? You can cover the bottom line for now with a lot of firing and consolidation, say it's AI's fault.

zahlman3 days ago

> A little tinfoil birdie told me

I appreciate your willingness to consider possibilities like this, but I think it really is tinfoil in this case.

> Market hiccups? Use a pandemic panic to justify printing a ton of money.

This gets cause and effect wrong. Wikipedia reminds:

> The World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020, and first referred to it as a pandemic on 11 March 2020.[3][4]

Markets were doing well in Jan 2020 until people started noticing the case numbers and speculating about the WHO's judgement. They were on a bull run before that — up almost 29% in the 2019 calendar year — which was largely a recovery from problems at the end of 2018.

So the market was only hiccuping because of existing panic over the pandemic (including people reasonably pricing in risk that pandemic would be officially declared; the "social distancing" policies and business closures were quite telegraphed).

> Printed too much money? Distribute it to the "right" people through a hiring frenzy

This is just naturally what would happen.

> Money ran out

It's more that people started devaluing money because of how much was printed, so interest rates were controlled to avoid a hyperinflationary spiral. It could have gone much worse (see: early 70s until early 80s). Powell did an impressive job to engineer the desired "soft landing", but I personally was surprised and displeased that they waited that long to reach for the brakes. (It came across that there was a reluctance to trust early vague inflation signals, despite what should have been a high prior on their correctness given recent policy.)

paulkrush2 days ago

immibis3 days ago

Markets hiccuped because they were already running too close to the red line. Good markets can rake disruption, rebalancing rather than crashing the entire thing.

j453 days ago

One way I had it explained to me (may be different now).. H-1B's are often a way of getting willing candidates who are overqualified to work tons of extra hours for years compared to other options.

the_real_cher3 days ago

My anecdata is that all the ones I've worked with have been underqualified, not saying all are, but Indian managers primarily hire Indian staff.

j453 days ago

Fair they may be underqualified. Overworked probably.

utyop22a day ago

Heres another way to think about it.

How has humanity organised itself to maximize productivity throughout time? By means of slavery.

What really is h1b at the core? Its a modern form of slavery - it appears to be voluntary in nature (to a degree it is) but the key point is that it creates lock in. That lock in enables a slave-like culture to thrive. And this is what we see.

And btw just install Sundar and Satya as CEOs to voluntarily attract more Indian software engineers and so on...

Lmao its so easy to see whats been going on. These guys arent all that smart, even though they are worshipped.

j45a day ago

Slavery, and it's replacement - indentured labour definitely is a blight.

utyop22a day ago

There is very clearly tacit collusion by managers of firms in the software production segment of economy.

And why not? It benefits them. I get it. But lets be real about it.

oytis3 days ago

Covid overhiring was quite a while ago, surely it has been long corrected?

zahlman3 days ago

As far as I can tell, it didn't start causing problems until the piper had to be paid (in the form of interest rate hikes), and even then probably a lot of businesses had a fair amount of runway.

muldvarp3 days ago

If AI with the current capabilities and within this short timeframe would have already had a big impact on the labor market, we'd be in big trouble.

evolve2ka day ago

Doesn’t seem to square with this article which (at time of writing) is a few posts down from this one.

The Evidence That AI Is Destroying Jobs For Young People Just Got Stronger

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45121342

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stuckinhell3 days ago

https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/salesforce-ceo-billionaire-ma...

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff says his company has cut 4,000 customer service jobs as AI steps in: ‘I need less heads’

seems not true ?

toomuchtodo3 days ago

Salesforce's weak quarterly revenue forecast signals lagging AI monetization - https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-r... - September 3rd, 2025

> Salesforce forecast third-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, signaling lagging monetization for its highly-touted artificial intelligence agent platform as clients dial back spending due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

> The cloud software provider also announced a $20 billion increase to its existing share buyback program, but that was unable to allay investors' concerns, sending Salesforce's shares down over 5% in extended trading.

throwaway298123 days ago

I seem to recall a vague statement about AI doing half of his company's work, which was never really defined either.

runako3 days ago

Salesforce revenue growth has decelerated from ~24% in FY 2021 to just over 8% for the trailing 12 months.

A company that was tuned to double revenue in 3 years transforming in one expecting to double in 9 years is definitely carrying too many people. It made sense for them to reduce headcount to align with their much slower growth curve.

Side note: Benioff also said earlier this year that they were done hiring programmers because AI. I'll let their careers page put the lie to that.

visarga3 days ago

Companies can choose to reduce costs by firing people, or to improve outcomes using both humans and AI. When they fire people they are saying they have no idea what to do with them. But people have AI too, we are no worse than AI.

sroerick2 days ago

Salesforce has a DX problem, putting the AI conversation aside, they probably should have developers so they know how to address this.

111010100011003 days ago

Benioff is making the same bet uber did with self driving cars, maybe this time it will be different?

josho3 days ago

4k jobs across the economy is far less than random variation in the stats.

Salesforce reduced their headcount in 2023 by 8-10%. Another reduction by 5% attributed solely to AI could be a half truth and the reality could simply be Salesforce driving an efficiency agenda.

Personally, I believe it will take a few more years for systems to be built. Once those systems are in place, then headcount reductions are going to come fast and wide. Or putting it simply think of it as exponential growth. Currently AI job displacements are small, but it's growing, and will continue accelerating in its growth.

rsynnott2 days ago

Salesforce just gave weak guidance. "Company that doesn't expect to do so well lays people off" is a pretty standard story, and one might be forgiven for thinking that "Company that expects magic robots to do everything lays people off" is, in this case, more marketing than anything else.

I wouldn't necessarily pay that much attention to what the CEO _says_.

fkyoureadthedoc3 days ago

shame, because what he really needed was fewer heads

disillusionist3 days ago

i can only speak to my personal experiences and not the entire "Job Market" but i have seen qualified, competent team members let go during "positive transformations" and expectations that their workload will be covered by others while corporate crows about how using AI will be such a force multiplier for those who remain.

emsign2 days ago

pssst… don't tell anybody but I think it's because it doesn't work as good as the hype says it does.

j453 days ago

Maybe not that they can see?

Technology of any kind evolves all societies.

oceanplexian3 days ago

Expecting the Fed to know anything about AI would be like asking your pet dog to express his opinions on astrophysics.

g42gregory3 days ago

Same people who say inflation is under control?

daveguy3 days ago

They very specifically say inflation is not "under control" which is why they have not lowered interest rates recently. It was almost under control until Trumpty Dumpty started his corrupt monkey wrenching with tariffs.

g42gregory3 days ago

As I recall, they were saying the inflation was under control 2019-2024, during which real inflation was around 40% (not annual but aggregate for 4 years).

daveguy3 days ago

Not sure if you don't know the difference between say and said or that inflation is measured as a yearly rate and not aggregate. Maybe a language barrier issue. 2019 and 2020 inflation was under 2% (target) each year. I agree with Elizabeth Warren and most other observers that they were late to raise interest rates. But they did start raising interest rates in early 2022 (but later and slower than they should have -- peaked early 2023). Regardless, have a great day!

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recursive3 days ago

2019 to 2024 is five years, not four.

Not sure if the 40% is real, but if so, it annualizes to 6.96% across five years. I don't know if that's considered high or not.

zahlman3 days ago

> I don't know if that's considered high or not.

The target has been a 2% long-term average (although there has been recent language indicating a shift towards "just try for 2% going forward"). It peaked at something like 9%, which hadn't been seen in decades. Nothing compared to e.g. Weimar Germany, Brazil circa 1990, or even modern-day Argentina; but undesirable and concerning.

dgfitz3 days ago

If we’re being pedantic, it’s actually somewhere between 4 years and 2 days, to 5 years and 364 days, 2024 was a leap year.

I sure don’t feel like I added anything to the discussion. Do you?

recursive3 days ago

I was curious about the annualized rate when I read the original comment, so if nothing else, I think that was a constructive addition.

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chad_strategic3 days ago

The same people who didn't see the financial crisis of 2008.

[deleted]3 days agocollapsed

atleastoptimal3 days ago

There seems to be wishful thinking on HN where people seem very biased in general against any article that claims AI is taking jobs, and supportive by default of any article that claims it isn't. For some reason many people just refuse to accept that AI could even just be one of many reasons leading to job loss.

causal3 days ago

You're absolutely right about the HN bias, but we're also a crowd with a lot of experience in some of the jobs supposedly being replaced and with the tools supposedly replacing us, and it's a little hard to buy.

The data about new grads not being hired isn't lying, but if AI is to blame we should be seeing a flood of data and stories on how roles X, Y and Z were obliterated by AI. But I have yet to see a single solid example, so I find it hard to believe it's a massive shift.

If anything, I would expect AI to be replacing older, expensive workers with young, tech-savvy workers who can put the AI to use. But that is clearly not the case.

physix3 days ago

Well, this one isn't that rosy

> The New York Fed blog noted that the modest impact on jobs so far may not hold in the future. "Looking ahead, firms anticipate more significant layoffs and scaled-back hiring as they continue to integrate AI into their operations," New York Fed researchers wrote.

spongebobstoes3 days ago

can you share some of the evidence showing that AI has caused job loss? I haven't seen any

cyanydeez3 days ago

especially when theres reports that suggest only 5% of businesses have leveraged AI for value.

The "AI revolution" seems as a cover story for covid related job cuts and likely includes losses stemming from over investing in AI supplements.

But regardless, real business data is nigh impossible to penetrate because private business is now a first class citizens and the rest of us are at it's mercies.

ivewonyoung3 days ago

The best indication I've seen so far is the the study and discussion in the linked article in this HN post[1].

I agree with you in a general sense though.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45121342

tkiolp43 days ago

At least in western Europe it doesn’t look like ai is taking over anything. Maybe in the US it is different

FirmwareBurner3 days ago

EU doesn't have the fixed number cap that H1Bs have in the US, so they can hire unlimited people from abroad to suppress wages, no need for AI.

deadbabe3 days ago

AI hasn’t don’t anything. It hasn’t eliminated jobs. It hasn’t increased revenues. It’s just another shiny toy for people to play with and buy some mental laziness. It’s a nothing technology, empty calories.

utyop22a day ago

It has done something - caused a tremendous amount of expenditures with negative returns for claimholders of firms pursuing AI (so far) :)

insane_dreamer2 days ago

title is misleading

the NY Fed actually said "very few firms reported AI-induced layoffs"

this is quite different than "not affecting job market"

We don't expect mass layoffs from AI (yet), but we do see companies not hiring, especially entry level workers, because of the promises of AI (real or imagined)

hn-front (c) 2024 voximity
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