karim793 days ago
Slightly off-topic: Seasonality is something which has intrigued me for a few years now, especially since the covid pandemic, and I've been reading a lot into it.
There are plenty of papers out there which try to explain viral seasonality and just about all of them fall short in terms of really getting a grasp on why viruses tend to 'like' certain meteorological conditions.
I love this paragraph:
"The complex interplay of variables that results in a given virus having such a specific seasonal pattern made me think of the Drake equation. Formulated in 1961, the Drake equation was meant to spark dialogue over the possibility of alien life by taking into account a handful of factors, like the fraction of stars in our galaxy that might have planets and the average number of planets that could support life as we know it. The possibility of extraterrestrial life was not solely determined by one variable but rather by a succession of quantities that needed to be estimated. Likewise, the seasonality of viruses cannot be attributed uniquely to outside temperature, or indoor gatherings, or even shifting humidity levels throughout the year. It’s a result of how all of these factors and more play together with the unique characteristics of individual viruses. If anything, it’s a reminder of the extraordinary complexity of life."
Source: https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/virus-ever...
baxtr2 days ago
I think it’s unfortunate that we ended up with a calendar that is not perfectly in sync with seasons.
Some calendars like this he Persian/Kurdish ones start with first day of spring. Beginning of autumn is "mid-year", which intuitively makes a lot of sense.
diggan2 days ago
> I think it’s unfortunate that we ended up with a calendar that is not perfectly in sync with seasons.
We'd all be using different calendars if that was the case, not sure how well that would work in a globally connected world.
"Ok, lets meet the 15th of Spring"
"Ah, so in 6 months?"
"No, I meant German Spring, not Chilean Spring"
"Ah, so 15th of Autumn, got it!"
baxtr2 days ago
Well, not quite. I’m merely proposing to have January 1st on spring starting day (northern hemisphere).
diggan2 days ago
It'd be kind of weird to have the coldest season (for me and my fellow countrymen) to be called Spring and then the second-coldest season called Winter, and we live in the northern hemisphere :)
BenjiWiebe2 days ago
Why northern hemisphere and not southern?
scotty792 days ago
Because most humans live in the northern hemisphere?
alpinisme2 days ago
I’m sure there are more aesthetically gratifying ways to align the seasons to the calendar but we’re less than two weeks off from having the first day of winter be the first of the year.
pinkmuffinere2 days ago
And even then, what is the significance of “first day of winter”, “last day of spring”, etc. Aren’t these just arbitrary dates?
baxtr2 days ago
No these days are aligned with the position of earth relative to the sun.
pinkmuffinere2 days ago
Interesting! That makes sense, and I’m pleasantly surprised — I didn’t realize we _actually_ use a date with a reason, instead of just tradition
BenjiWiebe2 days ago
Adding to baxtr's comment: first day of spring = days (daylight) lengthening, day and night equal. First day of summer, longest day/shortest night. First day of autumn, days shortening, day and night equal. First day of winter, shortest day/longest night.
baxtr2 days ago
But that’s exactly what I am bemoaning :) the first day of winter should not be the start of the year.
krisoft2 days ago
Why?
Zenzero2 days ago
If you do have a deep interest in this it would probably help to learn immunology on a more detailed level. My suspicion is that articles like the one you linked feel unsatisfactory because they say things like this
> But if our immunity is “restructured” in some way every few months, we would again expect all viral infections to peak at the same time
It is clear the author doesn't have a good understanding of basic immunology.
Much of the mystique falls away when you understand concepts such as adaptive immunity (how it develops and is retained), antigenic drift, environmental conditions (on the host) that improve transmission, etc.
quikoa2 days ago
While I haven't dived deep into this topic according to this article viral seasonality tracks with the migration of wild birds: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27324078/
AlexandrB3 days ago
In a way it's hardly surprising. Dealing with earth's seasons is one of the most fundamental survival challenges on the planet. The selective pressure to sense the seasons is ancient and very persistent.
xandrius2 days ago
Nothing is surprising after it has been discovered.
im3w1l2 days ago
So if one were to hypothetically stay in a temperature controlled and artificially lit environment could this seasonal cycle get messed up? And what consequences might that have?
tomohelix3 days ago
From an engineering perspective, a single bacterium is a state of the art self contained factory. It has thousands or even ten of thousands of feeback circuits each with multiple interweaving depdendencies that somehow works perfectly to adjust inputs/outputs on the fly at extreme efficiency.
Even with all of our technological achievements, we can barely build something at this level of complexity. And to make it so cheaply and quickly? Pure science fiction. Yet scoop up a handful of dirt or pour a glass of water and you can get billions of these sophisticated machines in your hand.
Earth and its biosphere is a marvel of technology. Shame we don't seem to appreciate it enough.
nyc_data_geek3 days ago
This is one of the reasons loss of biodiversity and mass extinction are so horrifically depressing, to me. All that marvelous complexity, all the blueprint information for it, all lost forever. Take the axolotl - it does not, seemingly, ever reach senescense, meaning they don't die of old age. Somewhere locked up in that blueprint information could be the key to new therapies or techniques to incorporate this into ourselves. But they are in danger of extinction, existing in a small patch of Mexico City's canals as they do. We lose them, we lose the chance to learn from them. How many undiscovered medicines, therapies, techniques lost forever? We don't even begin to imagine accounting for this particular externality
ookdatnog2 days ago
I once read a quote that I can't find anymore (and neither do I know who said/wrote it), that went something like: "Imagine advanced space-faring aliens land in your backyard and invite you to take a tour in their spaceship. You quickly realize that their technology is millions of years more advanced than our own. That is what studying biology feels like."
I'm no biologist but I liked that quote :)
stevelosh2 days ago
That quote is from https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/immune-system/
Could have also seen it via https://jsomers.net/i-should-have-loved-biology/ which quotes it directly
ookdatnog2 days ago
Thanks!
echelon3 days ago
> Earth and its biosphere is a marvel of technology.
Our world is exceedingly rare and beautiful.
We lucked into an incredible solar system configuration, and evolution has done some seriously heavy lifting.
The molecular biology of DNA alone -- its biochemistry and enzymatic machinery -- is enough to be its own field.
> Shame we don't seem to appreciate it enough.
The domain experts do. This complexity is very difficult to teach to laypeople and those not interested in science communication. It's so easy to take it all for granted. You have to develop an understanding first in order to appreciate the marvel of biology.
Communication is getting easier, though. I'm sure we'll get there.
CatWChainsaw2 days ago
Most of the HN crowd probably thinks biophilia is backwardsness, unless harnessed in service of technology. Utterly neurotic.
agumonkey3 days ago
Videos of lacrymaria single cell organisms (https://duckduckgo.com/?q=lacrymaria+olor&t=ffab&iar=images&...) show how absurdly sophisticated they are, with complex deformation of their membrane, which itself is remarkable.
01HNNWZ0MV43FF3 days ago
The bacteria in dirt don't do what I want, though. that's the great value of man-made machines, they (typically) do what I want (except cars)
pshc3 days ago
Bacteria might not satisfy your immediate wants, but they do what you need
01HNNWZ0MV43FFa day ago
Time to eat some dirt :yum:
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HPsquared3 days ago
It's not technology. Technology is art, craft, human creation. Natural phenomena can be hard for us humans to understand.
serf3 days ago
I agree with the spirit of what you're saying with a caveat; I do not think that the concept of technology requires human progenitors.
so with that said, and the addition of 'simulation theory' or some other such never-knowable.. well , maybe it is all technology, we'd just never know.
I think I prefer the grand splendor of natural phenomena, myself. Even as just a think-er it's just a more interesting premise to me.
JumpCrisscross3 days ago
> It's not technology
It’s not. But watching ATP synthase essentially run a turbine [1] looks damn close to what we’d design (and extend).
MichaelZuo3 days ago
Who gets to define ‘technology’?’
Clearly no number of pseudonymous accounts on HN can decide anything on behalf of anyone else.
HPsquared2 days ago
I have a bias towards etymology. Here's the entry for the root τέχνη:
https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/%CF%84%CE%AD%CF%87%CE%BD%CE...
That word is all about human (or other) intelligence and skill. Natural things developed and grew by natural processes, not clever skilful design. It's a different animal.
It's the difference between art and science. Technology is a form of art. Patents use the term "prior art" for a reason.
MichaelZuo2 days ago
Are beaver dams not natural then? But technology?
HPsquareda day ago
I guess they are beaver technology. Non-human intelligence. It's a philosophical question. Regardless it's not the same kind of "mindless brute force evolution" that led to ATP synthase.
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yieldcrv3 days ago
We’re getting there
The transistor based direction may be folly, but it will get close. All within 100 years passed vacuum tubes.
akomtu3 days ago
Technology? Living cells don't look like the transistor-based technology we have, and we don't understand how cells work to make such broad assumptions. It seems to me that if transistor-based lifeforms exist, they look nothing like the organic lifeforms on our planet.
bobbylarrybobby3 days ago
It doesn't need to be understood by us, let alone contain transistors, to qualify as technology.
akomtu3 days ago
That's just intellectual laziness: pretending that what we don't understand isn't any different from what we understand.
drdaeman3 days ago
> And to make it so cheaply and quickly? Pure science fiction.
Don't scientists out there very explicitly avoid building self-replicating systems at any significant scale to avoid the associated risks?
I think they already can create artificial/synthetic lifeforms in a lab - it's just that there are not a lot of use cases that make building a factory worth it, at least so far.
[Upd: I stand corrected - I thought they can, but turns out they can't. Thank y'all.]
jl63 days ago
No, we cannot already create artificial lifeforms, and the reason we don’t create self-replicating systems is because we don’t know how (unless you mean something like modifying viruses, but that’s not really us doing the hard part).
It would be nice to think that a scientist in command of self-replicating artificial life technology will have the restraint to hold back on deploying it at scale. But if someone comes along and says “hey I made an artificial bacterium that can eat all the CO2 in the atmosphere, want me to replicate it globally?”, someone is going to push the button.
tomohelix3 days ago
We use synthetic biology to modify what is already available in nature and then call it "synthetic lifeforms" but it is like a cheap knockoff of the original with barely functional system.
All of these "synthetic lifeforms" I have seen are usually very gimped and nowhere as robust as a normal bacteria. It is still an ongoing effort to make a real, designed from scratch, comparable bacteria that can match the original. But speaking as someone who worked on these things, I would not expect any major breakthrough soon.
dekhn3 days ago
The closest thing I can think of in biology would be https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/21/science/21cell.html and https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.328.5981.958 (same underlying research, two popular science articles). It still depended on many different known biological components, tools, and starting points.
In non-biology, most of the work has been self-assembling, not self-replication. IE, put all the puzzle piecees in a bag, jiggle for long enough, and you get a fully assembled puzzle out.
There's also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenobot
Realistically, many scientists are working towards fully self-replicating machines. Generally, nobody has been able to articulate a realistic danger that is not highly implausible; we work under the assumption either nothing bad will happen, or we'll be able to stop it well before it's an issue.
RandomThoughts33 days ago
We can’t. You are far overestimating the state of the art.
The only self-replicating thing we can "build" is a modified biological cell and that’s already a tremendous achievement.
loa_in_3 days ago
The seasonal state machine
amelius2 days ago
We are really hardwired for Earth.