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Not a direct answer to your question, but because I've been in the same situation many times (wanting to move away from tech and work more outdoors), I just wanted to point out that there are "in-between" desk jobs too, where you're not working for a FAANG but not necessarily working in a sweatshop sewing linens either.

Patagonia, REI, the Sierra Club, the Nature Conservancy, etc. all still need some digital expertise, whether for their storefront or internal operations. They will quite often recruit for dev or tech positions. Most of those aren't remote, but if you're near one of those areas (REI corporate is mostly near Seattle, Patagonia in Ventura), it might be worth considering? They mostly do not manufacture in the US either, but outsource that to various lower-cost countries. I think Outdoor Research is one of the limited exceptions who do some manufacturing domestically.

I don't think outdoor guides make much money. Many of my friends were kayaking/climbing/backpacking guides and it's kinda a thing you do in your 20s while you can live frugally and without major expenses or kids. They'd usually live in tents, company barracks, or their vans. It's also largely a seasonal job and you'd have to find your own way in the off seasons. A similar but slightly more stable job is working an interpretive ranger position for the Parks Service or a state park, but a lot of those are entry-level or seasonal too. People who want to stick around long term in those fields usually have to move into management/admin of some sort.

If you want to be outside a lot, the trades (construction) or project management (renewables development and planning, like for commercial wind or solar) or transportation (for states & municipalities) would all typically be more stable than outdoor recreation.

If you're willing to get more specialized education, you can also go the environmental consultancy route (with a bio/wildlife/GIS/etc. educational background), the kind of firm that other agencies and companies will outsource work to to evaluate environmental impacts, conduct endangered species analyses, or help with city planning and the like.

I have been there, several times.

I got real estate license as it seems to combine my love for exploring new areas, meeting people, and freedom to set your own schedule. But I could not go full-time into it as I have kids and didn't want to be away showing homes on weekends or in the evenings.

Other times I tried to do part-time portrait photoshoots as you get to be outside. But again as a father, I didn't think it was worth it. But you can make decent income with just outdoors family portraits.

I feel a little sad about not pursuing these a bit more. But I am taking my kids outside as much as possible, getting them into photo- & video-graphy, and just having fun. This seems to make me not only happy but also more motivated at the work. Perhaps, you can pursue some outdoors hobbies before making any big moves.

Before changing your life, go ask people in Real World Jobs how much they’d like to sit at a computer for 35 hours a week and make $200k or more.

My experience kinda dovetails with what other folks have said. I've been a machinist for about 15 years. The early career stuff is low pay, rough conditions. In the middle things get a little better but the hours are long. I'm doing a temp gig to cover for a 60 year old guy who needs some surgery for some work related wear on his joints. Realistically, he's not coming back to work after surgery.

Most of the men in my dad's family were plasterers. Fifty is about the real limit.

You can work as unlicensed or uninsured plumber/HVAC/handyman if you live in the right area, assuming you are competent. If you want to hustle, you can make a decent living. My cousin who couldn't handle medical industry (billing, insurance and finance area) moved to handyman work and he's doing OK. He gets plenty of work, and makes decent money ($120-$150K). One thing he does differently than others is that he charges by project. So his hourly rate can be $200-$250 for replacing an emergency water heater, and sometimes his rate is $30 (a quick paint job). He basically can work 24/7 if he wants to, but he doesn't. Since he hates managing people, he also doesn't want to grow his business.

I know a welder. He had to quit after 15 years do to physical ailments. If you get a job like that, you must be into fitness. It is easy to work a desk at 55, but being a welder is hard. Personally, I would live modestly for a few years and bank as much as you can. Then go buy or build a small business. That is an easier, more interesting life, and you can learn all the "hard stuff" typical business owners must pay others to do (finance, IT,supply chain,...)

Both of my adult children have foregone career paths for menial jobs (retail worker and admin stuff). So far, they are both really happy. Living their lives without stress or overtime.

Blue collar work wears out the body. Are you going to be welding at 50? Working as a guide at 60? Tile workers in my family all stopped in their 40s because they could no longer do it.

I could quit my programming job and live on a lot less, as I have savings and already own most of the stuff I need, but health insurance is a problem. (And I like having money).

First ask yourself how much you need to make. Possibly take into account any government benefits you receive when you're low income (often free health insurance and food) and whether you can save a lot by living in a place with cheaper housing.

Then figure out which job would make you the happiest on a day to day basis.

Then write a plan that would allow you to make that income doing the job that you actually want to do.

A friend quit her job to become a flight attendant.

1. Airlines were almost fully automated. Nobody is losing their jobs or getting a pay cut to any new tech.

2. She had a lot of books that she never had the time to read, and rarely even had the time to sit down quietly.

3. There's some value in becoming a safety and health officer to people in an enclosed space 15000 feet in the sky. Yet it's not stressful unlike driving an ambulance or dealing with tech debt.

these are limited ideas from people I see doing them- and who at least appear to be making a decent living.

- handyman (you need to be near an affluent area) (the person I know doing this was a graphic designer for 30 years. He’s making more and much happier now)

- welding exhausts / racing exhausts. Needs a decent size shop.

- machinist.

- fly fishing guide / instructor. (Need to be located near appropriate waters very hit or miss).

- shoe making (maybe? Look up custom shoe making … there seems to be some great success stories recently )

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The question is: do people doing manual work are on average happier that people writing software? At least, in country, the sure don't look like they are.

I just Googled "Geocities" and it's a pretty cool Easter egg. I'll let you do it for yourselves :)

I work as a land surveyor. I'm outdoors every day, often in the woods. The pay is decent and the work is rewarding.

Keep working the tech job and saving money before agi arrives. After agi, there will only be two classes, those with capitals and those without. You won’t make much money selling labor as those jobs would be commoditized by agi controlled robots. Think government will be your savior? Well think again.